Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
